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Short-horizon BTC (rolling 15m Kalshi ↔ Polymarket · 5m Polymarket-only)

Info only — not arbitrage. Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks BRTI (60s avg); Polymarket on Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP-60s. As of 1793531281 (UTC epoch); auto-refreshes from /api/short-horizon.

BTC 15m · 6:00–6:15 AM ETLIVE
RESOLVER_MISMATCH STRIKE_DEF_MISMATCH NOT_ARB
Kalshi KXBTC15M-26NOV010615-15
bid 0.210 · ask 0.220 · mid 0.215 · strike $77,900.85
BTC ≥ floor_strike at close · settles: CF Benchmarks BRTI, 60s avg before close
Polymarket btc-updown-15m-1793530800
bid 0.180 · ask 0.190 · mid 0.185
BTC close ≥ open (Up) · settles: Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP-60s data stream
GAMMA_CLOB_DISAGREE(clob preferred)
Coinbase BTC-USD spot $77,855.34 REFERENCE ONLY — not BRTI, not Chainlink, not a settlement source, not arb.
⚠ Different resolvers & strike definitions — prices are not comparable for arbitrage. No consolidated mid. Match confidence: 0.5.
BTC 15m · 6:15–6:30 AM ETLIVE
RESOLVER_MISMATCH STRIKE_DEF_MISMATCH NOT_ARB SINGLE_VENUE
Polymarket btc-updown-15m-1793531700
bid 0.500 · ask 0.510 · mid 0.505
BTC close ≥ open (Up) · settles: Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP-60s data stream
Coinbase BTC-USD spot $77,855.34 REFERENCE ONLY — not BRTI, not Chainlink, not a settlement source, not arb.
⚠ Different resolvers & strike definitions — prices are not comparable for arbitrage. No consolidated mid. Match confidence: n/a (single venue).
BTC 5m · 6:05–6:10 AM ETLIVE
RESOLVER_MISMATCH STRIKE_DEF_MISMATCH NOT_ARB POLY_ONLY_NO_KALSHI_SERIES
Polymarket btc-updown-5m-1793531100
bid 0.080 · ask 0.090 · mid 0.085
BTC close ≥ open (Up) · settles: Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP-60s data stream
GAMMA_CLOB_DISAGREE(clob preferred)
Coinbase BTC-USD spot $77,855.34 REFERENCE ONLY — not BRTI, not Chainlink, not a settlement source, not arb.
⚠ Different resolvers & strike definitions — prices are not comparable for arbitrage. No consolidated mid. Match confidence: n/a (single venue).

Sparklines (this window, from /api/short-horizon/history)

liq_btc_15m_1793531700 kalshi mid
liq_btc_15m_1793531700 polymarket mid
liq_btc_15m_1793532600 polymarket mid
liq_btc_5m_1793531400 polymarket mid
Coinbase BTC-USD (reference_only, last 3h)

Settlement & disclaimer

Kalshi KXBTC15M asks whether CF Benchmarks BRTI (60s average) at window close is ≥ a fixed strike. Polymarket btc-updown asks whether the Chainlink BTC/USD price at close is ≥ the price at open. Different questions, different oracles: match confidence is capped at 0.5 and no consolidated mid is published. Price gaps are NOT arbitrage. Coinbase spot is shown for reference only and is not a settlement source. Not investment advice; Liquified does not execute trades.