Where the two biggest prediction markets disagree

MISMATCH These events do not represent the same underlying economic outcome. While both concern Bitcoin price in 2026, the Kalshi event requires >$99 i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.2200 419 419 K

0.2100 255 674 K

0.2000 544 1.2K K

0.1900 14 1.2K K

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0600 415 415 P

0.0700 7.0K 7.4K P

0.0800 3.3K 10.7K P

0.0900 7.8K 18.4K P

Bitcoin reaches $150k threshold in 2026

LIVE

ID: LIQ_BTC_150K_2026

Mid-Price

—

not comparable — different contracts

Spread

—

not comparable — different contracts

Depth ±500bps

586.0K

Liquidity

K: KXBTCMAXY-26… P: will-bitcoin…

MISMATCH deadline differs · source differs · measure differs i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0400 105 105 K

0.0300 9.0K 9.1K K

0.0200 38.0K 47.1K K

0.0100 140.9K 188.0K K

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0030 47.8K 47.8K P

0.0040 7.5K 55.4K P

0.0050 1.6K 57.0K P

0.0060 40.1K 97.0K P

Bitcoin reaches $200k threshold in 2026

LIVE

ID: LIQ_BTC_200K_2026

Mid-Price

—

not comparable — different contracts

Spread

—

not comparable — different contracts

Depth ±500bps

1.5K

Liquidity

K: KXBTCMAXY-26… P: will-bitcoin…

MISMATCH deadline differs · threshold differs · source differs i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.4950 20.2K 20.2K P

0.4930 26.9K 47.0K P

0.4920 22.4K 69.4K P

0.4900 357 69.8K P

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0500 39.9K 39.9K K

0.0600 11.0K 50.9K K

0.0700 10.5K 61.4K K

0.0800 8.0K 69.4K K

Ethereum reaches $4,000 by end of 2026

LIVE

ID: LIQ_ETH_4K_2026

Mid-Price

$0.1000

Synthetic

Spread

200 bps

bps

Depth ±500bps

35.9K

Liquidity

K: KXETHMAXY-27… P: will-ethereu…

CAUTION — RESOLUTION NOT FULLY VERIFIED Both events measure the same underlying outcome (ETH > $4,000) with the same directional intent and similar timeframes (end of 2026). Howeve i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0900 1.7K 1.7K P

0.0900 543 2.2K K

0.0800 2.2K 4.5K P

0.0700 5.1K 9.6K P

PRICESIZECUMV

0.1100 67 67 P

0.1200 3.5K 3.6K P

0.1200 2.6K 6.1K K

0.1300 2.4K 8.6K K

Ethereum reaches $5,000 by end of 2026

LIVE

ID: LIQ_ETH_5K_2026

Mid-Price

$0.0750

Synthetic

Spread

100 bps

bps

Depth ±500bps

43.5K

Liquidity

K: KXETHMAXY-27… P: will-ethereu…

CAUTION — RESOLUTION NOT FULLY VERIFIED Both events resolve on the same underlying outcome (ETH > $5,000 by end of 2026) with nearly identical deadlines (Jan 1, 2027 vs Dec 31, 202 i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0700 302 302 P

0.0700 28 330 K

0.0600 2.7K 3.0K P

0.0600 432 3.4K K

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0800 6.2K 6.2K P

0.0800 191 6.4K K

0.0900 3.5K 9.9K K

0.0900 2.9K 12.8K P

JD Vance wins 2028 Presidential Election

LIVE

ID: LIQ_ELECTION_2028_VANCE

Mid-Price

—

not comparable — different contracts

Spread

—

not comparable — different contracts

Depth ±500bps

393.4K

Liquidity

K: KXPRESOUTCOM… P: will-jd-vanc…

MISMATCH source differs · victory condition differs (head-to-head vs outright) i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.1610 1.3K 1.3K P

0.1600 5.3K 6.7K P

0.1590 181 6.8K P

0.1580 85 6.9K P

PRICESIZECUMV

0.1200 255 255 K

0.1400 500 755 K

0.1500 420 1.2K K

0.1620 240 1.4K P

Gavin Newsom wins 2028 Election

LIVE

ID: LIQ_ELECTION_2028_NEWSOM

Mid-Price

—

not comparable — different contracts

Spread

—

not comparable — different contracts

Depth ±500bps

237.3K

Liquidity

K: KXPRESOUTCOM… P: will-gavin-n…

MISMATCH source differs · victory condition differs (head-to-head vs outright) i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.1580 1.0K 1.0K P

0.1570 177 1.2K P

0.1550 50 1.3K P

0.1540 937 2.2K P

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0600 250 250 K

0.0800 917 1.2K K

0.1000 419 1.6K K

0.1400 410 2.0K K

AOC wins 2028 Presidential Election

LIVE

ID: LIQ_ELECTION_2028_AOC

Mid-Price

—

not comparable — different contracts

Spread

—

not comparable — different contracts

Depth ±500bps

3.33M

Liquidity

K: KXPRESOUTCOM… P: will-alexand…

MISMATCH source differs · victory condition differs (head-to-head vs outright) i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0560 976 976 P

0.0550 48.5K 49.4K P

0.0540 794 50.2K P

0.0530 212 50.5K P

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0300 250 250 K

0.0500 900 1.1K K

0.0570 3.3K 4.5K P

0.0580 156 4.6K P

National Bitcoin Reserve by 2027

LIVE

ID: LIQ_BTC_RESERVE_2027

Mid-Price

—

not comparable — different contracts

Spread

—

not comparable — different contracts

Depth ±500bps

7.7K

Liquidity

K: KXBTCRESERVE… P: us-national-…

MISMATCH threshold differs i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.2400 5 5 P

0.2300 1.5K 1.5K P

0.2200 203 1.7K P

0.2100 1.7K 3.4K K

PRICESIZECUMV

0.2200 11 11 K

0.2300 208 219 K

0.2400 318 537 K

0.2500 500 1.0K K

Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026

LIVE

ID: LIQ_FED_CUT_2026

Mid-Price

—

not comparable — different contracts

Spread

—

not comparable — different contracts

Depth ±500bps

9.3K

Liquidity

K: KXRATECUT-26… P: will-no-fed-…

MISMATCH deadline differs i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.6980 13 13 P

0.6960 170 182 P

0.6950 920 1.1K P

0.6940 551 1.7K P

PRICESIZECUMV

0.2600 11 11 K

0.2710 1 12 K

0.2890 28 40 K

0.2900 32 72 K

US Recession by end of 2026

LIVE

ID: LIQ_US_RECESSION_2026

Mid-Price

—

not comparable — different contracts

Spread

—

not comparable — different contracts

Depth ±500bps

1.1K

Liquidity

K: KXGDP-26JUL3… P: us-recession…

MISMATCH threshold differs · source differs i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.8800 1.1K 1.1K K

0.8100 350 1.4K K

0.3700 29 1.4K K

0.3600 1.7K 3.2K K

PRICESIZECUMV

0.1300 1.3K 1.3K P

0.1500 862 2.2K P

0.1600 2.2K 4.4K P

0.1700 7.0K 11.4K P

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

LIVE

ID: LIQ_WC_2026_BRAZIL_WIN

Mid-Price

$0.0665

Synthetic

Spread

10 bps

bps

Depth ±500bps

6.67M

Liquidity

K: KXMENWORLDCU… P: will-brazil-…

✓ RESOLUTION MATCH VERIFIED K: Brazil wins the 2026 Men's World Cup… | P: Brazil wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup… i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0660 974.3K 974.3K P

0.0660 156.0K 1.13M K

0.0650 82.9K 1.21M K

0.0650 55.9K 1.27M P

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0670 955.2K 955.2K P

0.0670 91.3K 1.05M K

0.0680 21.8K 1.07M P

0.0680 5 1.07M K

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

LIVE

ID: LIQ_WC_2026_ARGENTINA_WIN

Mid-Price

$0.0905

Synthetic

Spread

-110 bps

bps

Depth ±500bps

19.46M

Liquidity

K: KXMENWORLDCU… P: will-argenti…

✓ RESOLUTION MATCH VERIFIED K: Argentina wins the 2026 Men's World Cup… | P: Argentina wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup… i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0960 69.0K 69.0K P

0.0950 19.3K 88.3K P

0.0940 73.5K 161.8K P

0.0930 3.05M 3.21M P

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0850 65.4K 65.4K K

0.0860 86.4K 151.8K K

0.0880 10.0K 161.8K K

0.0890 31.0K 192.8K K

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

LIVE

ID: LIQ_WC_2026_USA_WIN

Mid-Price

$0.0270

Synthetic

Spread

-120 bps

bps

Depth ±500bps

13.41M

Liquidity

K: KXMENWORLDCU… P: will-usa-win…

✓ RESOLUTION MATCH VERIFIED K: USA wins the 2026 Men's World Cup… | P: USA wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup… i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0330 45.7K 45.7K K

0.0320 12.4K 58.0K K

0.0310 26.1K 84.1K K

0.0300 28.7K 112.8K K

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0210 1.46M 1.46M P

0.0220 100.6K 1.56M P

0.0230 69.4K 1.63M P

0.0240 275.8K 1.90M P

Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

LIVE

ID: LIQ_WC_2026_MEXICO_WIN

Mid-Price

$0.0160

Synthetic

Spread

-20 bps

bps

Depth ±500bps

23.05M

Liquidity

100

K: KXMENWORLDCU… P: will-mexico-…

✓ RESOLUTION MATCH VERIFIED K: Mexico wins the 2026 Men's World Cup… | P: Mexico wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup… i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0170 6.6K 6.6K K

0.0160 9.0K 15.7K K

0.0150 84.0K 99.7K K

0.0140 2.39M 2.49M P

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0150 4.08M 4.08M P

0.0160 1.02M 5.09M P

0.0170 36.7K 5.13M P

0.0180 542.7K 5.67M P

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

LIVE

ID: LIQ_WC_2026_FRANCE_WIN

Mid-Price

$0.1765

Synthetic

Spread

10 bps

bps

Depth ±500bps

9.06M

Liquidity

K: KXMENWORLDCU… P: will-france-…

✓ RESOLUTION MATCH VERIFIED K: France wins the 2026 Men's World Cup… | P: France wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup… i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.1760 22.8K 22.8K P

0.1760 9.4K 32.2K K

0.1750 40.3K 72.5K P

0.1740 47.6K 120.0K P

PRICESIZECUMV

0.1770 91.6K 91.6K P

0.1780 32.7K 124.2K P

0.1790 57.4K 181.7K K

0.1790 14.8K 196.4K P

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

LIVE

ID: LIQ_WC_2026_SPAIN_WIN

Mid-Price

$0.1425

Synthetic

Spread

-70 bps

bps

Depth ±500bps

11.47M

Liquidity

100

K: KXMENWORLDCU… P: will-spain-w…

✓ RESOLUTION MATCH VERIFIED K: Spain wins the 2026 Men's World Cup… | P: Spain wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup… i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.1460 24.7K 24.7K K

0.1450 440 25.1K K

0.1440 649 25.8K K

0.1430 5 25.8K K

PRICESIZECUMV

0.1390 249.1K 249.1K P

0.1400 59.2K 308.4K P

0.1410 3.7K 312.1K P

0.1420 5.0K 317.1K P

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

LIVE

ID: LIQ_WC_2026_ENGLAND_WIN

Mid-Price

$0.1045

Synthetic

Spread

-10 bps

bps

Depth ±500bps

14.55M

Liquidity

100

K: KXMENWORLDCU… P: will-england…

✓ RESOLUTION MATCH VERIFIED K: England wins the 2026 Men's World Cup… | P: England wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup… i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.1050 248.6K 248.6K P

0.1040 47.8K 296.4K P

0.1030 640.5K 936.9K K

0.1030 108.9K 1.05M P

PRICESIZECUMV

0.1040 36.6K 36.6K K

0.1050 11.0K 47.6K K

0.1060 122.1K 169.6K P

0.1060 115.0K 284.6K K

Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

LIVE

ID: LIQ_WC_2026_MEXICO_QF

Mid-Price

$0.2800

Synthetic

Spread

—

bps

Depth ±500bps

50.4K

Liquidity

K: KXWCROUND-26… P: will-mexico-…

✓ RESOLUTION MATCH VERIFIED K: Mexico qualifies for the Quarterfinals o… | P: Mexico reaches the Quarterfinals of the … i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.2800 646 646 P

0.2700 4.2K 4.9K K

0.2700 1.6K 6.4K P

0.2600 50 6.5K P

PRICESIZECUMV

0.2800 19 19 K

0.2900 3.2K 3.2K K

0.3000 6.4K 9.7K K

0.3000 500 10.2K P

Will Portugal reach the Final at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

LIVE

ID: LIQ_WC_2026_PORTUGAL_FINAL

Mid-Price

$0.2050

Synthetic

Spread

100 bps

bps

Depth ±500bps

52.7K

Liquidity

K: KXWCROUND-26… P: will-portuga…

✓ RESOLUTION MATCH VERIFIED K: Portugal qualifies for the Final of the … | P: Portugal reaches the Final of the 2026 F… i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.2000 899 899 K

0.1900 3.3K 4.2K K

0.1900 110 4.3K P

0.1800 2.5K 6.8K P

PRICESIZECUMV

0.2100 12.0K 12.0K K

0.2100 404 12.4K P

0.2200 6.5K 18.9K K

0.2200 2.1K 21.0K P

Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

LIVE

ID: LIQ_WC_2026_USA_R16

Mid-Price

$0.6450

Synthetic

Spread

100 bps

bps

Depth ±500bps

39.3K

Liquidity

K: KXWCROUND-26… P: will-usa-rea…

✓ RESOLUTION MATCH VERIFIED K: USA qualifies for the Round of 16 of the… | P: USA reaches the Round of 16 of the 2026 … i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.6400 203 203 P

0.6400 24 227 K

0.6300 3.3K 3.5K K

0.6300 676 4.2K P

PRICESIZECUMV

0.6500 6.2K 6.2K K

0.6600 6.5K 12.7K K

0.6600 153 12.9K P

0.6700 1.0K 13.9K K

Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

LIVE

ID: LIQ_WC_2026_SPAIN_SF

Mid-Price

$0.4200

Synthetic

Spread

—

bps

Depth ±500bps

24.4K

Liquidity

K: KXWCROUND-26… P: will-spain-r…

✓ RESOLUTION MATCH VERIFIED K: Spain qualifies for the Semifinals of th… | P: Spain reaches the Semifinals of the 2026… i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.4200 43 43 K

0.4100 931 974 K

0.3900 3.0K 4.0K P

0.3800 443 4.4K P

PRICESIZECUMV

0.4200 15 15 P

0.4300 3.2K 3.2K K

0.4400 7.2K 10.4K K

0.4400 500 10.9K P

Get divergence alerts

When Kalshi and Polymarket disagree by more than 5 points on the same event, we’ll send you the event and both prices. No noise, only signal.