Liquified LIVE DATA
Book World Cup Waitlist
LIVE · 2026-08-28 03:15:07 UTC
MARKETS · 22 MATCHED EVENTS

Where the two biggest prediction markets disagree

One screen for the real odds across Kalshi + Polymarket — live consolidated order books, side by side
9 LIVE
13 ERROR
No verified divergence - gaps below are framing mismatches
78.8pt
Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026
MIRAGE deadline differs
 30.3pt
Bitcoin reaches $100k threshold in 2026
MIRAGE These events do not represent the same underlying economic outcome. While both concern Bitcoin price in 2026, the Kalshi event requires >$99
 17.1pt
JD Vance wins 2028 Presidential Election
MIRAGE source differs · victory condition differs (head-to-head vs outright)
Bitcoin reaches $100k threshold in 2026
LIVE
ID: LIQ_BTC_100K_2026
Mid-Price
—
not comparable — different contracts
Spread
—
not comparable — different contracts
Depth ±500bps
10.2K
shares
Liquidity
62
K: KXBTCMAXY-26… P: will-bitcoin…
MISMATCH These events do not represent the same underlying economic outcome. While both concern Bitcoin price in 2026, the Kalshi event requires >$99 i
PRICESIZECUMV
0.3300 6 6 K
0.3100 246 252 K
0.3000 483 734 K
0.2900 3.1K 3.8K K
PRICESIZECUMV
0.0340 307 307 P
0.0360 2.2K 2.5K P
0.0400 404 2.9K P
0.0420 500 3.4K P
Bitcoin reaches $150k threshold in 2026
ERROR
ID: LIQ_BTC_150K_2026
Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.
Bitcoin reaches $200k threshold in 2026
ERROR
ID: LIQ_BTC_200K_2026
Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.
Ethereum reaches $4,000 by end of 2026
LIVE
ID: LIQ_ETH_4K_2026
Mid-Price
$0.1850
Synthetic
Spread
-300 bps
bps
Depth ±500bps
15.6K
shares
Liquidity
76
K: KXETHMAXY-27… P: will-ethereu…
CAUTION — RESOLUTION NOT FULLY VERIFIED Both events measure the same underlying outcome (ETH > $4,000) with the same directional intent and similar timeframes (end of 2026). Howeve i
PRICESIZECUMV
0.2000 30 30 K
0.1700 1 31 K
0.1600 63 94 P
0.1500 3.0K 3.1K K
PRICESIZECUMV
0.1700 13 13 P
0.1800 712 725 P
0.1900 189 915 P
0.2000 4.9K 5.9K P
Ethereum reaches $5,000 by end of 2026
LIVE
ID: LIQ_ETH_5K_2026
Mid-Price
$0.0895
Synthetic
Spread
-210 bps
bps
Depth ±500bps
29.5K
shares
Liquidity
86
K: KXETHMAXY-27… P: will-ethereu…
CAUTION — RESOLUTION NOT FULLY VERIFIED Both events resolve on the same underlying outcome (ETH > $5,000 by end of 2026) with nearly identical deadlines (Jan 1, 2027 vs Dec 31, 202 i
PRICESIZECUMV
0.1000 30 30 K
0.0900 100 130 K
0.0600 2.4K 2.5K K
0.0600 267 2.7K P
PRICESIZECUMV
0.0790 750 750 P
0.0800 15 765 P
0.0840 1.5K 2.3K P
0.0900 11 2.3K P
JD Vance wins 2028 Presidential Election
LIVE
ID: LIQ_ELECTION_2028_VANCE
Mid-Price
—
not comparable — different contracts
Spread
—
not comparable — different contracts
Depth ±500bps
460.1K
shares
Liquidity
95
K: KXPRESOUTCOM… P: will-jd-vanc…
MISMATCH source differs · victory condition differs (head-to-head vs outright) i
PRICESIZECUMV
0.2410 1.4K 1.4K P
0.2400 1.2K 2.6K P
0.2390 75 2.7K P
0.2380 100 2.8K P
PRICESIZECUMV
0.0900 1 1 K
0.1000 200 201 K
0.1100 236 437 K
0.2100 135 572 K
Gavin Newsom wins 2028 Election
LIVE
ID: LIQ_ELECTION_2028_NEWSOM
Mid-Price
—
not comparable — different contracts
Spread
—
not comparable — different contracts
Depth ±500bps
303.9K
shares
Liquidity
95
K: KXPRESOUTCOM… P: will-gavin-n…
MISMATCH source differs · victory condition differs (head-to-head vs outright) i
PRICESIZECUMV
0.0860 798 798 P
0.0850 192 990 P
0.0840 355 1.3K P
0.0830 260 1.6K P
PRICESIZECUMV
0.0700 200 200 K
0.0800 220 420 K
0.0870 6.6K 7.0K P
0.0890 223 7.2K P
AOC wins 2028 Presidential Election
LIVE
ID: LIQ_ELECTION_2028_AOC
Mid-Price
—
not comparable — different contracts
Spread
—
not comparable — different contracts
Depth ±500bps
231.3K
shares
Liquidity
95
K: KXPRESOUTCOM… P: will-alexand…
MISMATCH source differs · victory condition differs (head-to-head vs outright) i
PRICESIZECUMV
0.1370 668 668 P
0.1360 125 792 P
0.1350 1.4K 2.2K P
0.1340 1.1K 3.3K P
PRICESIZECUMV
0.0400 250 250 K
0.0700 200 450 K
0.1380 9.9K 10.3K P
0.1390 1.7K 12.1K P
National Bitcoin Reserve by 2027
LIVE
ID: LIQ_BTC_RESERVE_2027
Mid-Price
—
not comparable — different contracts
Spread
—
not comparable — different contracts
Depth ±500bps
4.7K
shares
Liquidity
23
K: KXBTCRESERVE… P: us-national-…
MISMATCH threshold differs i
PRICESIZECUMV
0.1000 178 178 P
0.0900 25 203 P
0.0800 30 233 P
0.0600 80 313 P
PRICESIZECUMV
0.1000 10 10 K
0.1100 255 266 K
0.1200 2.2K 2.5K P
0.1200 2 2.5K K
Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026
LIVE
ID: LIQ_FED_CUT_2026
Mid-Price
—
not comparable — different contracts
Spread
—
not comparable — different contracts
Depth ±500bps
2.0K
shares
Liquidity
56
K: KXRATECUT-26… P: will-no-fed-…
MISMATCH deadline differs i
PRICESIZECUMV
0.8880 170 170 P
0.8870 40 210 P
0.8860 65 275 P
0.8850 455 730 P
PRICESIZECUMV
0.1020 2.1K 2.1K K
0.1140 66 2.2K K
0.1150 2 2.2K K
0.1360 444 2.6K K
US Recession by end of 2026
LIVE
ID: LIQ_US_RECESSION_2026
Mid-Price
$0.0850
Synthetic
Spread
100 bps
bps
Depth ±500bps
22.5K
shares
Liquidity
48
K: KXGDP-26JUL3… P: us-recession…
MISMATCH K: Real GDP increase > 1.0% in Q2 2026… | P: US Recession by end of 2026… i
PRICESIZECUMV
0.0800 40 40 P
0.0700 2.6K 2.6K P
0.0600 6.7K 9.3K P
0.0500 4.3K 13.6K P
PRICESIZECUMV
0.0900 4.9K 4.9K P
0.1000 1.4K 6.3K P
0.1100 500 6.8K P
0.1200 120 6.9K P
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
ERROR
ID: LIQ_WC_2026_BRAZIL_WIN
Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
ERROR
ID: LIQ_WC_2026_ARGENTINA_WIN
Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
ERROR
ID: LIQ_WC_2026_USA_WIN
Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
ERROR
ID: LIQ_WC_2026_MEXICO_WIN
Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
ERROR
ID: LIQ_WC_2026_FRANCE_WIN
Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
ERROR
ID: LIQ_WC_2026_SPAIN_WIN
Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
ERROR
ID: LIQ_WC_2026_ENGLAND_WIN
Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
ERROR
ID: LIQ_WC_2026_MEXICO_QF
Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.
Will Portugal reach the Final at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
ERROR
ID: LIQ_WC_2026_PORTUGAL_FINAL
Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
ERROR
ID: LIQ_WC_2026_USA_R16
Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
ERROR
ID: LIQ_WC_2026_SPAIN_SF
Unable to load orderbook data. Market may be closed or delisted.
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When Kalshi and Polymarket disagree by more than 5 points on the same event, we’ll send you the event and both prices. No noise, only signal.
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