Where the two biggest prediction markets disagree

One screen for the real odds across Kalshi + Polymarket — live consolidated order books, side by side

11 LIVE

Verified divergence - match-checked

3.0pt

US Recession by end of 2026

Kalshi 2.5% vs Polymarket 5.5% VERIFIED ≈ $150 / $5k if gap closes

2.7pt

AOC wins 2028 Presidential Election

Kalshi 10.0% vs Polymarket 12.7% VERIFIED ≈ $135 / $5k if gap closes

2.0pt

Bitcoin reaches $100k threshold in 2026

Kalshi 13.5% vs Polymarket 11.5% VERIFIED ≈ $100 / $5k if gap closes

Bitcoin reaches $100k threshold in 2026

LIVE

ID: LIQ_BTC_100K_2026

Mid-Price

$0.1250

Synthetic

Spread

-100 bps

bps

Depth ±500bps

50.5K

Liquidity

100

K: KXBTCMAXY-26… P: will-bitcoin…

✓ RESOLUTION MATCH VERIFIED K: Bitcoin price > $99,999.99 by Dec 31, 20… | P: Bitcoin hit $100k by December 31, 2026… i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.1300 8.1K 8.1K K

0.1200 1.9K 10.0K K

0.1100 9.3K 19.3K K

0.1100 150 19.4K P

PRICESIZECUMV

0.1200 241 241 P

0.1300 93 334 P

0.1400 87 421 P

0.1400 84 504 K

Bitcoin reaches $150k threshold in 2026

LIVE

ID: LIQ_BTC_150K_2026

Mid-Price

$0.0190

Synthetic

Spread

20 bps

bps

Depth ±500bps

383.2K

Liquidity

K: KXBTCMAXY-26… P: will-bitcoin…

CAUTION — RESOLUTION NOT FULLY VERIFIED Both events resolve on the same underlying outcome (Bitcoin exceeding $150k by Dec 31, 2026) with identical thresholds and deadlines. Howeve i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0180 3.1K 3.1K P

0.0160 65 3.2K P

0.0120 417 3.6K P

0.0100 1.4K 5.0K K

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0200 271 271 P

0.0200 107 378 K

0.0210 8.6K 9.0K P

0.0220 100 9.1K P

Bitcoin reaches $200k threshold in 2026

LIVE

ID: LIQ_BTC_200K_2026

Mid-Price

$0.0090

Synthetic

Spread

-20 bps

bps

Depth ±500bps

2.83M

Liquidity

K: KXBTCMAXY-26… P: will-bitcoin…

✓ RESOLUTION MATCH VERIFIED K: Bitcoin price > $199,999.99 by Dec 31, 2… | P: Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2… i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0100 394 394 K

0.0070 2.1K 2.5K P

0.0060 6.8K 9.3K P

0.0050 18.5K 27.8K P

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0080 30 30 P

0.0090 200 230 P

0.0100 278 508 P

0.0110 150 658 P

Ethereum reaches $4,000 by end of 2026

LIVE

ID: LIQ_ETH_4K_2026

Mid-Price

$0.0500

Synthetic

Spread

—

bps

Depth ±500bps

69.0K

Liquidity

K: KXETHMAXY-27… P: will-ethereu…

CAUTION — RESOLUTION NOT FULLY VERIFIED Both events measure the same underlying outcome (ETH > $4,000) with the same directional intent and similar timeframes (end of 2026). Howeve i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0500 1.0K 1.0K K

0.0400 3.6K 4.6K P

0.0400 3.0K 7.6K K

0.0300 9.1K 16.7K P

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0500 1.1K 1.1K P

0.0600 7.9K 8.9K K

0.0600 5.0K 13.9K P

0.0700 3.8K 17.7K K

Ethereum reaches $5,000 by end of 2026

LIVE

ID: LIQ_ETH_5K_2026

Mid-Price

$0.0295

Synthetic

Spread

10 bps

bps

Depth ±500bps

444.6K

Liquidity

K: KXETHMAXY-27… P: will-ethereu…

CAUTION — RESOLUTION NOT FULLY VERIFIED Both events resolve on the same underlying outcome (ETH > $5,000 by end of 2026) with nearly identical deadlines (Jan 1, 2027 vs Dec 31, 202 i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0290 7.2K 7.2K P

0.0280 1.2K 8.5K P

0.0270 55 8.5K P

0.0260 184 8.7K P

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0300 4.9K 4.9K K

0.0300 22 4.9K P

0.0310 183 5.1K P

0.0320 10 5.1K P

JD Vance wins 2028 Presidential Election

LIVE

ID: LIQ_ELECTION_2028_VANCE

Mid-Price

$0.1870

Synthetic

Spread

-60 bps

bps

Depth ±500bps

575.2K

Liquidity

100

K: KXPRESPERSON… P: will-jd-vanc…

✓ RESOLUTION MATCH VERIFIED K: JD Vance wins the 2028 US Presidential E… | P: JD Vance wins the 2028 US Presidential E… i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.1900 101.5K 101.5K K

0.1800 50.7K 152.2K K

0.1780 201 152.4K P

0.1770 200 152.6K P

PRICESIZECUMV

0.1840 700 700 P

0.1860 400 1.1K P

0.1870 1.7K 2.8K P

0.1880 1.4K 4.2K P

Gavin Newsom wins 2028 Election

LIVE

ID: LIQ_ELECTION_2028_NEWSOM

Mid-Price

$0.1240

Synthetic

Spread

-120 bps

bps

Depth ±500bps

233.2K

Liquidity

K: KXPRESPERSON… P: will-gavin-n…

CAUTION — RESOLUTION NOT FULLY VERIFIED Both events track the identical outcome: Gavin Newsom winning the 2028 US Presidential Election. The underlying economic exposure is equival i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.1300 158 158 K

0.1200 21.0K 21.2K K

0.1100 3.5K 24.7K K

0.1080 50 24.7K P

PRICESIZECUMV

0.1180 5 5 P

0.1190 30 35 P

0.1200 78 113 P

0.1210 1.2K 1.3K P

AOC wins 2028 Presidential Election

LIVE

ID: LIQ_ELECTION_2028_AOC

Mid-Price

$0.1125

Synthetic

Spread

-250 bps

bps

Depth ±500bps

436.5K

Liquidity

K: KXPRESPERSON… P: will-alexand…

✓ RESOLUTION MATCH VERIFIED K: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins the 2028 U… | P: AOC wins the 2028 US Presidential Electi… i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.1250 214 214 P

0.1240 52 266 P

0.1230 1.7K 2.0K P

0.1220 1.2K 3.2K P

PRICESIZECUMV

0.1000 33.1K 33.1K K

0.1100 30.7K 63.7K K

0.1200 24.4K 88.2K K

0.1280 10.0K 98.2K P

National Bitcoin Reserve by 2027

LIVE

ID: LIQ_BTC_RESERVE_2027

Mid-Price

—

not comparable — different contracts

Spread

—

not comparable — different contracts

Depth ±500bps

102.7K

Liquidity

K: KXBTCRESERVE… P: us-national-…

MISMATCH threshold differs · source differs i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0400 51 51 P

0.0380 53 103 K

0.0370 200 303 K

0.0350 1.2K 1.5K K

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0470 36 36 K

0.0480 74 110 K

0.0500 45 155 K

0.0600 37 192 K

Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026

LIVE

ID: LIQ_FED_CUT_2026

Mid-Price

$0.0340

Synthetic

Spread

-60 bps

bps

Depth ±500bps

7.12M

Liquidity

K: KXRATECUT-26… P: will-no-fed-…

✓ RESOLUTION MATCH VERIFIED K: Fed cuts rates at least once by December… | P: Fed cuts rates at least once by December… i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0370 25 25 K

0.0360 4 28 K

0.0350 70 99 K

0.0340 84 183 K

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0310 688 688 P

0.0320 2.1K 2.8K P

0.0330 13.6K 16.4K P

0.0340 3.0K 19.4K P

US Recession by end of 2026

LIVE

ID: LIQ_US_RECESSION_2026

Mid-Price

$0.0400

Synthetic

Spread

-200 bps

bps

Depth ±500bps

325.9K

Liquidity

100

K: KXRECSSNBER-… P: us-recession…

✓ RESOLUTION MATCH VERIFIED K: Recession in 2026 (two consecutive negat… | P: US Recession by end of 2026 (2 neg BEA q… i

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0500 8.4K 8.4K P

0.0400 5.0K 13.5K P

0.0300 9.7K 23.2K P

0.0200 45.5K 68.7K P

PRICESIZECUMV

0.0300 6.4K 6.4K K

0.0400 45.4K 51.7K K

0.0500 2.6K 54.3K K

0.0600 859 55.2K P

Get divergence alerts

When Kalshi and Polymarket disagree by more than 5 points on the same event, we’ll send you the event and both prices. No noise, only signal.

Short-horizon BTC (rolling 15m Kalshi ↔ Polymarket · 5m Polymarket-only)

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Info only — not arbitrage. Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks BRTI (60s avg); Polymarket on Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP-60s. As of 1793528521 (UTC epoch); auto-refreshes from /api/short-horizon.

BTC 15m · 5:15–5:30 AM ETLIVE

RESOLVER_MISMATCH STRIKE_DEF_MISMATCH NOT_ARB

Kalshi KXBTC15M-26NOV010530-30
bid 0.420 · ask 0.430 · mid 0.425 · strike $78,025.51
BTC ≥ floor_strike at close · settles: CF Benchmarks BRTI, 60s avg before close

Polymarket btc-updown-15m-1793528100
bid 0.450 · ask 0.460 · mid 0.455
BTC close ≥ open (Up) · settles: Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP-60s data stream

Coinbase BTC-USD spot $78,004.76 REFERENCE ONLY — not BRTI, not Chainlink, not a settlement source, not arb.

⚠ Different resolvers & strike definitions — prices are not comparable for arbitrage. No consolidated mid. Match confidence: 0.5.

BTC 15m · 5:30–5:45 AM ETLIVE

RESOLVER_MISMATCH STRIKE_DEF_MISMATCH NOT_ARB SINGLE_VENUE

Polymarket btc-updown-15m-1793529000
bid 0.490 · ask 0.500 · mid 0.495
BTC close ≥ open (Up) · settles: Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP-60s data stream

Coinbase BTC-USD spot $78,004.76 REFERENCE ONLY — not BRTI, not Chainlink, not a settlement source, not arb.

⚠ Different resolvers & strike definitions — prices are not comparable for arbitrage. No consolidated mid. Match confidence: n/a (single venue).

BTC 5m · 5:20–5:25 AM ETLIVE

RESOLVER_MISMATCH STRIKE_DEF_MISMATCH NOT_ARB POLY_ONLY_NO_KALSHI_SERIES

Polymarket btc-updown-5m-1793528400
bid 0.560 · ask 0.570 · mid 0.565
BTC close ≥ open (Up) · settles: Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP-60s data stream
GAMMA_CLOB_DISAGREE(clob preferred)

Coinbase BTC-USD spot $78,004.76 REFERENCE ONLY — not BRTI, not Chainlink, not a settlement source, not arb.

⚠ Different resolvers & strike definitions — prices are not comparable for arbitrage. No consolidated mid. Match confidence: n/a (single venue).